Is gold at risk of further price falls this year?

The price of gold may have peaked and could average less than $2,000 an ounce this year amid signs of an economic recovery and stronger US dollar, according to a new analysis.

“We now expect slightly higher US nominal and real yields, a less dovish Fed and a moderate rise in the dollar. All negatives for gold prices, so we think that gold prices have peaked,” Georgette Boele, senior foreign exchange and precious metals strategist at ABN Amro said in a research note.

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The precious metal tumbled sharply for four straight days last week and settled under $1,800 an ounce. Analysts attributed the price falls to a strengthening greenback and rising US Treasury yields.

In its revised gold price forecast, ABN Amro said the bullion could average $1,800 an ounce in March but post further declines in the coming months. By December 2021, prices could be around $1,700 an ounce.

“The outlook has deteriorated sharply. We no longer expect higher gold prices,” Boele noted.

Mixed views

However, the current sentiment in the market remains mixed, with some industry sources calling for the bullion to post gains over the next few days.

In Kitco’s new gold survey, 64 percent of analysts said the yellow metal could rise this week. Among Main Street investors, only less than half (48 percent) bet on gold price increases. About a third of them were bearish on the bullion, while 21 percent were neutral.

According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, silver’s latest performance has also put pressure on gold, which had drifted lower due to a stronger dollar and rising bond yields.

“The silver correction added to weakness in gold as it struggled to put up a defense against a dollar which reached its highest level since October and a renewed jump in bond yields, at this stage mostly on the back of rising us recovery and growth expectations instead of fears about rising inflation,” Hansen said last Friday.

Late last month, the US Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged.

Reporting by Cleofe Maceda