Biden grabs the delegate lead, and it’s going to be hard for Sanders to catch him

We mapped out yesterday morning what we thought might be a super Super Tuesday for Joe Biden. We just didn’t realize how great for him it would actually be.

Biden won nine states (Alabama, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia) versus three for Bernie Sanders (Colorado, Utah and Vermont), with two states still not called by NBC News (California and Maine).

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More significantly, Biden has won — so far — 87 more delegates than Sanders from yesterday’s contests, according to NBC’s Decision Desk. And even when all of the California delegates eventually get allocated, we still believe Biden will emerge as the delegate winner from Super Tuesday.

And here’s why that’s a problem for Sanders: The future contests don’t get any easier for him.

On March 10, the Democratic presidential race moves to Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington state.

On March 17, it heads to Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio.

Sanders stuck (mostly) in the 20s

Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire last month with 26 percent of the vote.

He got 20 percent in South Carolina.

And last night, he took 26 percent in Massachusetts, 25 percent in Oklahoma and Tennessee, 24 percent in North Carolina, 23 percent in Virginia, 22 percent in Arkansas, and 16 percent in Alabama.

While Sanders did get 36 percent in Colorado, 33 percent (so far) in California, and 51 percent in his home state of Vermont, he isn’t growing his base.

In fact, it seems quite the contrary — see below.

Data Download: The number of the day is … 35 points

35 points.

That’s the difference between the share of the vote that Bernie Sanders got in his home state of Vermont in 2016 (86 percent) and what he got there last night (51 percent).

Yes, it’s a more crowded field, but it’s also a signal of how Sanders hasn’t expanded his base in the last four years.

Here’s how those vote shares from 2016 and 2020 stack up in the other states that voted last night.

Alabama

• 2016: 19 percent
• 2020: 17 percent

Arkansas

• 2016: 30 percent
• 2020: 22 percent

California

• 2016: 43 percent
• 2020: 33 percent

Colorado (Was a caucus in 2016, now a primary)

• 2016: 59 percent
• 2020: 36 percent

Maine (Was a caucus in 2016, now a primary)

• 2016: 64 percent
• 2020: 33 percent

Massachusetts

• 2016: 49 percent
• 2020: 26 percent

Minnesota (Was a caucus in 2016, now a primary)

• 2016: 62 percent
• 2020: 30 percent

North Carolina

• 2016: 41 percent
• 2020: 24 percent

Oklahoma

• 2016: 52 percent
• 2020: 25 percent

Tennessee

• 2016: 32 percent
• 2020: 25 percent

Texas

• 2016: 33 percent
• 2020: 30 percent

Utah (Was a caucus in 2016, now a primary)

• 2016: 79 percent
• 2020: 35 percent

Vermont

• 2016: 86 percent
• 2020: 51 percent

Virginia

• 2016: 35 percent
• 2020: 23 percent

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